It's Tempting

I began this article yesterday afternoon in the midst of a college football game.  I updated it this morning.   I have to admit that I have been tempted to bet on college football games.  I have been thinking about it since the OSU/Michigan game.  But was that game just a lucky guess?  I simply don't know how well I'd do in sports betting, but betting on games makes them more interesting.  I just don't know if I could ever become a sports bettor, because I don't follow the teams close enough, but Vegas will set odds on all 130 teams.  

College football requires a lot of research particularly in this new NIL standard of the NCAA.  I just don't know.  And some people are good at guessing outcomes of upsets.  There are always upsets every week, with some weeks having fewer than others.  Betting on odds is just an educated guessing game.  But again, I have been tempted.  I was in the middle of the Clemson/Kentucky game as I began writing this post and the odds favored Clemson, but it seemed to me that game could have been an upset game.  I was watching for one reason.  I guessed Kentucky might win that game.  Clemson won with a touchdown with three seconds left.  I almost got it right.

Michigan this morning is favored by two.  But is that an upset game?  Is Joel Klatt right about Alabama winning and will be playing Washington, which he has said will win the whole thing?  I could go with his analysis, but does he know something Vegas doesn't?  I just don't know.  There is head betting and heart betting.  And if one always bets with one's heart, one will never win as often.  

This is a problem for sports bettors.  I think too often I would bet on MY favorite teams.  I simply don't like Clemson.  But my head would tell me that Clemson was the favorite.  But my heart would say to bet on Kentucky.  This is the interest I had in this game.  As far as OSU is concerned for last night's game, would I bet that Marvin Harrison would not play?  Would it matter?  It could have made the difference.  But what of the depth of OSU?  Could they have won otherwise?  I asked that question before the game.  Vegas said it might not matter, so they favored OSU by five.  A lot of money was won by Vegas on that game.  Who would have guessed only 3 points by OSU?  Who would have guessed their QB would get hurt?  OSU did not have their best on offense.  Defense got worn by the fourth quarter.  It was 3-0 for three quarters.  It was a terrible game!

This is when betting becomes a guessing game, but it's about educated guessing.  Could Alabama actually beat Michigan?  This too is just a guess. I once filled out an NCAA basketball bracket where OSU was fairly highly ranked.  I guessed them to win the 64, but lose in the 32.  I guessed right.  That was a head decision and not a heart guess.  Out of fifteen people I came in second that year, because most were OSU fans and had OSU advancing.  Did I know something they didn't?  No.  I guessed.  But why did I guess right that year?  I do not know.

Sports betting is a guessing game.  Even Vegas guesses, because Vegas can't predict upsets.  I can't either.  I would not be able to educate a guess on upsets.  Vegas doesn't predict upsets.  This is why they don't always win.  Even with the Michigan game on Monday can Vegas predict Harbaugh's head will be in that game?  Is he thinking about the NFL, or if he is, would he be MORE motivated to win?  One has to guess.  Is that an upset game?  Some think it is.  What if JJ McCarthy gets hurt, as happened with Devon Brown last night? 

Can Washington win the whole thing?  Many think it can.  Would I bet on what Joel Klatt says?  This is why I don't bet.  I think too much with my heart.  My heart tells me Michigan would win, but my head tells me Joel might be right.  I'm smoking my Tim West pipe today wondering just how I would bet on Monday's games.  I'm just happy I'm not  a sports bettor.  I'll make my predictions and just watch.  That makes me care less if my pick doesn't win.  Thank you for your time and Peace to each one of you.

Dave